The increase of average annual oil price on one dollar for a barrel gives additional three with a half milliards of dollars to balance of trade of country, the first vice-chairman of Centrobanka declared Alex Ulyukaev. On counts CB, proficit of balance of trade of Russia on results 2009 will make from 50 to 80 milliards of dollars. Thus if oil prices will make a 41 dollar for a barrel (exactly from such prognosis the renewed budget sverstan on 2009), point-of-sale proficit will not exceed
40 milliards of dollars, RIA Novosti passes.Centrobank already not in the first time comes forward with prognoses which considerably differ from the prognoses of type ministries. So, at the end of March of Ulyukaev declared that the average annual course of dollar would make in Russia 32-33 rouble,
but not 35,1 rouble, as written in a budget.In addition, in Centrobanke not agree and with information on inflation and outflow of capital. Monetarnye authorities of country consider that the rates of price advance in Russia can appear below 13 percents, while a government forecasts 13-14
percents. In respect of estimation of outflow of capital, then, from data of CB, this index will make less than 70 milliards of dollars, but not 90 milliards of dollars, as suppose in Minekonomrazvitiya.Prognoses of Centrobanka are more optimistic, than prognoses of government.
For example, in CB consider that Russia is not waited by the second wave of bank crisis, and worst for an economy already behind. In Minfine consider that a bank crisis needs to be waited from growth of non-payments on credits.Oil price in the second quarter averaged 44
dollar for a barrel. In April the cost of oil also sticks to higher than governmental prognosis in a 41 dollar for a barrel. Not eliminated, that from intensifying of world economic crisis of oil price again will begin to fall. Yet in summer 2009 years oil costed more than 140
dollars for a barrel.On results the first two months 2009 years proficit of balance of trade of Russia made 15,2 milliard of dollars. For comparison, in 2008 an analogical index was 33,4 milliard of dollars, reports Lenta.ru.
