Leader of department of researches of gas industry of Institute of problems of natural monopolies Alex Belogor’ev came forward with a lecture «Influence of world economic crisis on development of international trade natural gas: prospects for Russia». Alex Belogor’ev told that a current economic crisis rendered serious influence on the international markets of gas. Falling of industrial production and markets of services and reduction of consumption of electric power caused to these already resulted in substantial
to diminishing of demand on natural gas. In the separate European countries in the last months demand, in spite of the cold winter and inherent to him inertance, fallen down more than on 15% as compared to a previous year.The beginning crisis of overproduce affected already actually
all strany-proizvoditeli gas. Thus the maintainance of the substantial exceeding of suggestion of gas above demand in the period of crisis inevitably will result in an additional price-cutting on gas, especially at the spot market. De autre part, establishment in relation to low
prices on gas does him more attractive for new users, that will be instrumental in the maintainance of the national programs of gasification in the developing economies of Asia. As a result, in the period of crisis the world rates of growth of consumption of gas will aim
to the zero.For Russia it will be important that during a crisis the basic markets of sale of Russian gas will narrow on a background a sharp export price decline (countries of ES and CIS). Thus, a basic problem will be the sharp diminishing of investment resources, that can very much
painfully to affect development of gas booty.After completion of crisis the international markets of gas are waited by stormy growth. However able Russia scarcely will be to them to avail, as probability is great, that by the end of crisis Russia will come with scarce gas balance.
In this case Russian gas industry will not be able to satisfy growings like a weed internal and external markets simultaneously. It will appear incapable operatively to increase the export of gas, that can undermine it
on a background a keen competition from the side of other stran-eksporterov, gas industry of which was in the period of crisis in more stable position. The special value has that all new gazodobyvayuschie projects in Russia are considerably dearer in this case
foreign analogues by reason of extreme difficult prirodno-klimaticheskikh and infrastructural terms, comparable unless with projects in Canada and on Alaska. As a result stake of Russia in the international trading in gas, including, in a pipeline segment, will go down,
that will shake its influence on development of world gas industry.In order that to avoid such negative scenario of development, it is necessary valuably to carry out drawn up investment plans on gazodobyche, in spite of all crisis terms of management. In
details, it is now important on principle, that the planned sequestrum of the investment program «Gazproma» on 2009 did not touch perspective gazodobyvayuschikh projects. Parallell «Gazpromu», «Novateku», «Itere» and the largest oil companies of Russia require
to increase present activity on development of gas booty abroad.Thus, sure, by main priority, both on a middle and on long-term prospect there must be an increase of gas booty exactly in Russia, and also development of domestic gazokhimicheskoy
to industry.By an alternative there is an increase of the effective use of gas the decline of export of gas in Russia with the simultaneous increase of capacity of internal market. However very low the real efficiency of the use of gas in Russia is still,
possibility of decline of consumption of gas arrives at only due to the increase of energoeffektivnosti and gazosberezheniya, on some estimations, 175 milliards of m
economies of Russia it is needed to go in the nearest years on the way of not increase, and, vice versa, serious diminishing of internal demand. But development of the high-efficiency use of gas, in particular, gazokhimii goes in Russia inexcusable slowly, and in fact probuksovyvaet.
In the total the gas processing in the visible future also will not result in growth of internal market.Thus, in an order to avoid degradation of gazodobyvayuschey and gas-transport industries, both in a medium-term and in long-term prospect, Russia does not have other
possibilities, except for as to continue to grow the export of gas to Europe, CIS, East Asia and other regions. In this connection a problem of maintainance and increase of current stake of Russia on the international markets of gas is indeed actual and requires most serious
attention, both from the side of Gazproma and from the side of Government of Russia.
