“Yet a year ago we assumed possibility of appearance of substantial disbalance bid-asked hydrocarbons to 2012, so urgent «large hole 2012 years» and price advance over 250 dollars for the barrel of oil”, - a head declared today “Gazproma” Alex
Miller. A however spinuping global crisis rendered the most powerful influence on the state of affairs of world market of power mediums, a head said "Gazproma" in the appearance on 12-m annual general collection of European business congress in Porto-chervo on Italian
island Sardinia.At conference «Power sector: crisis of financial markets and his
that a market accepted as orientira on 2010 a level 100 dollars for the barrel of oil. A market revised correlation of volumes of booty (presently and in the near future), supplies (existing and potential), expected demand on energoresursy critically
and standard of prices on them. A market reacted on natural reduction of booty on existent deposits (near 7% in a year) and on reduction from the crisis of capital costs in industry. Thus, standard of oil prices, which is observed now - about 70 dollars
for a barrel, is a technical not correction and not casual oscillation, but returning to the dokrizisnomu trend. A market reflected the change of moods in an economy. Looked after a trend is acceptable to the users. There are enough objective grounds, that cost of oil
by the end of 2009 attained a level 85 dollars for a barrel.But de autre part, structural changes at the market of oil did not happen so. He still remains too dependent from «vneenergeticheskikh» factors. Who will give guarantees, that, for example, from some
next bankruptcy in a financial sphere the cost of oil will not fall down again. And, producers will not invest, iskho
In fact prices already relatively high, and guarantees, that further growth of demand will be supported by growth of investments and resource base, it is not still. Expectations are saved, that caused high volatil’nost’yu market of oil reduction of the programs of capital investments
international oil companies will lead through 3-5 years to reduction of powers on a booty and offering to oil at the market. Investments in a geological survey and production in a global neftegazovom sector will fall down more than on 20% in 2009 If capital investments will not be restored,
then prognosis «150 dollars for the barrel of oil through dva-tri years», outspoken by the representatives of Saudovskoy Arabia on the May power forum in Rome, will appear a true. All of it testifies to the system weakness of market of oil.Alex Miller underlined, that
to the global power danger, related to the shortage of energoresursov, in the world it is not while. But the districts of booty of organic types of fuel more retire from the basic centers of their consumption, and their mastering becomes all dearer. Suggestion of energoresursov
in the future critically depends on expenses on an input in development of new deposits and their exploitation. If a cost of oil will be such volatil’noy, as in recent year, very much many deposits on which «expect» markets, will not begin to be developed.Introduction
in exploitation of deposits with more difficult terms of booty, especially shelfy deposits, will demand further growth of investments. Their volume must make about 400 milliards of dollars in a year. Therefore already over the world can clash the years
with the physical shortage of extractive powers, that will cause growth of investments in a booty, but this effect will become will feel far not immediately. While market of sverkhvolatilen, there is dead certainty, that existent supplies will not be developed sufficiently rapid, that
to satisfy the expected demand.According to a chapter "Gazproma", the folded system of pricing at the oil market requires a native revision. A problem is in that today a price is determined not at the market, actually, oils, and at the market of financial instruments,
and too strongly depends not on fundamental factors, not from the real demand and supply on oil, but from activity of speculative investors.Disbalance in a benefit «financial» operations at the oil market resulted in that oil prices steel in a greater degree
by the reflection of capital market tendencies, than market of hydrocarbons. Last years there is the obviously overpriced role at the market of oil «third forces», relating neither to the production hydrocarbons nor to their consumption. Exceptionally financial operations with
on an exchange it was resulted oil contracts in that all a large role in forming of price is played by not demand and supply, and even not estimation of their future trends, but availability of financial resources for such operations and «feel» money-market.Cost of oil, as
commodity, has economic sense, when it is supported by the large number of the real, but not virtual market transactions, Alex Miller underlined. Otherwise, the market of oil differs nothing from the market of equities, that oil plays absolutely other
a role is in a world economy.A situation, when so scale invest in commodity oil as form of maintainance of cost, poorly maintains economic criticism. This practice plays a destabilizing role in a global economy.From here are values of spades of prices
in the middle of the last year, and inadequately low – at the beginning of current year. Only in the last weeks a situation became better. The dynamics of oil price in a current year reflects the crisis state of financial markets, but not actual correlation of demand and supply
hydrocarbons.In this connection, in "Gazprome" with interest perceived nedavnee suggestion of sin’ora Paolo Skaroni, president of the Italian company ENI, about creation «Global oil agency». In opinion of Alex Millera, such agency will be, foremost,
instrumental in the increase of transparency and competition of world market of oil.One of strong facilities for the orientation of market on transactions with the physical volumes of oil the primary use of long-term supply contracts would become oils which
– at standardization of terms – would consist and within the framework of exchange auctions. Creation of the single system of long-term contracts with fizi
would allow to the producers to plan investments in long-term projects. Their use would limit influence on the prices of risk capital. Such contracts, on upstairs basis, are traditionally used in gas industry and provide reliable
deliveries.The system of long-term contracts must be supported by creation of the single platezhno-raschetnoy system with control of list of entries, that would allow to carry out the gradual expulsing economic of neobosnovannykh mediators. .esche one important question
– decline of system risks of international oil market. Makes sense maximally to secure the market of oil from nestabil’nosti at the currency market. The necessity of reformation of the existent system of attachment of prices deserves a discussion to one currency. In interests
all participants of market - diminishing of influence of currency risks on functioning of world market of oil and development of the multicurrency system of calculations.Monopolistic position of basic point-of-sale ground NYMEX, absence of auctions cuts off on plenty of sorts of oil
largest producers from a market. Creation of new Exchange of Oil of stran-proizvoditeley is needed, on which it is possible it will be really to trade in physical volumes. Russia will continue to support creation of new liquid markers. Example of Dubayskoy of exchange
with contracts on the physical supplying to Oman oil rotined that a market has considerable interest to the increase of transparency of mechanism of pricing for sulphureous oil. oil prices it is impossible to explain the laws of efficient market, that
creates plural problems for a world economy. The Russian and international oil companies continue to experience difficulty in planning of return and terms of realization of capital investments, and the users of oil and nefteproduktov do not have understanding even
medium-term dynamics of the expenses.As a result, when a world economy will begin an exit from a crisis, a neftegazovyy sector will appear incapable to support a positive dynamics the necessary volume of deliveries.So «Hole 2012» a year nobody abolished, Alex said
Nice
Thus there must not be a speculative constituent in its price, a head declared "Gazproma".
